It’s been eighteen months. Taliban are still off in the hills, that nice Mr Karzai is still president. Kabul has cinemas and wedding dress shops. You can dance. Aid money and wealthier emigres are coming in and the building trade’s kicking into gear. Girls are going to school and their mothers only wear a burqa if they want to.
Then again there are a few other things. A civilian car driven by some American soldiers had a magnetic bomb stuck under it last week which blew up the engine and injured the driver. UN security advice to aid agencies varies about travelling outside Kabul, but going south or east is often thought a Bad Idea - either anti-government elements or bandits. I don’t know how much is self-important paranoia and how much wise precaution. But I do know it was advice nobody gave five years ago.
Also, the Afghan government, with money from Japan and other generous foreigners, is trying to disarm the many private armies and smaller groups in the country. This is something the Taliban did – but now everyone has a gun again. And one of the things slowing this effort down is the skepticism of a man called Qasim Fahim. He’s a Tajik from the Panjshir valley, leader of the biggest army in Afghanistan, long time Mujahed. Understandable that he doesn’t want to give up his guns. But he’s also the Minister of Defence. So that’s another problem.
And the plain fact of the matter is that if you live in or near Herat your government is Ismail Khan, local man, runs an army. He is in no practical way accountable to the central government. He controls trade across the frontier with Iran and taxes it. Whereas if you live in the north of the country, in a principally Uzbek district, your government is most likely General Dostam. Local man...
As I say, it’s been eighteen months. It could still go either way. Maybe in two years Fahim will have disarmed his Panjshiris and taken to puttering around the world visiting airshows. The Taliban will be down to their last bag of tea. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of the main non-Talib Pashtun faction will still be sulking on the Iranian border. Poppy farmers will be growing apricots. Ismail Khan and General Dostam will have handed in their armouries, taken the Kabul shilling and become bona fide provincial governors in Herat and Mazar-I-Sharif. Nike will be outfitting a shoe factory in Karte Naw.
Or maybe Fahim will be out of the government and back up in the North fighting General Dostam for control of Mazar. Hamid Karzai will have been blown up by a suicide bomber, or will be so well protected he never gets out of the house. Kabul itself will be shambling back into the faction fighting of ten years ago. And the Taliban in fissiparous alliance with Hekmatyar will be hunkered down on the Ghazni road waiting to take over from the last man standing.
A historian would bet on the second of these pictures. Afghan history is like that game they play with tourists on Manhattan street corners. The Afghan version of this game is called Choose the Head of State, and the punters are most often Superpowers. 1839, Britain has a go. I know who the head of state is, it’s Shah Shujah, super chap, affable, outward-looking, good for trade. Place your bets. Fwip-fwip-fwip… sorry pal – the correct answer is Dost Mohammed. You lose twenty thousand soldiers and camp followers turning the snow pink with their blood in the Kabul river gorge.
1879, a glutton for punishment, Britain guesses that the leader of Afghanistan is Yakub Khan. Fwip-fwip – watch the cards – fwip-fwip-fwip… sorry chum, Abdur Rahman is the ruler of Afghanistan, you lose Louis Cavagnari and a company of Guides massacred in the Bala Hissar. Retires hurt. 1979 and the Russians have a go. We know, we know! The leader of Afghanistan is Dr Najibullah. Eyes down… fwip-fwip-fwip… oh dear, you lose, the leader of Afghanistan is… hah! Trick question! There is no leader, just a lot of different factions fighting each other. Sorry Russia, you lose a guzillion soldiers, your military self-respect and your superpower status!
Now here comes the young kid who thinks he knows everything. Hell you guys are plain dumb. It's just obvious the leader of Afghanistan is Hamid Karzai, stoopid. Fwip-fwip-fwip…
Well, maybe the new kid gets it right. America has often done things no other country has ever done before. Any right thinking person must hope for success. But it will be, if it comes, success against the odds.